Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb294b83722c31cd4ce00154a2e76f42f3ac7b3ea2e8ac8f498712fbea63e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 836.95$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 65c | 806.31$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 670.92$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 591.66$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.26 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 577.41$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 20c | 504.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 414.46$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 371$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 40c | 251.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 243.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 202.16$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 26c | 186.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 48c | 186.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 168.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 12c | 157.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 149.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 148.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 17c | 148.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 26c | 137.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 136.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 136.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 131.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 125.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 125.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 124.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 124.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 46c | 123.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 116.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 113.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 113$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 58c | 112.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 110.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 107.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 47c | 107.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 102.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 97.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 97.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 95.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 94.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 46c | 94.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 92.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 90.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 89.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 15c | 89.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 85.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 77c | 84.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 35c | 78.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 77.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 71.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 51c | 65.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 53c | 57.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 22c | 54.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfa…a71fbacked No | 71c | 50.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 41c | 48.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 47c | 47.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 54c | 46.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 42.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 75c | 39.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 26c | 38.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 37.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 44c | 37.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 50c | 36.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 53c | 35.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 35.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 34.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 55c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…2a53backed Yes | 35c | 30.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.