Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x065bd9677d8d73469b1d6db74a3e83cf04c0f021f8f4f24420b6a8f03925fadd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 622.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 21c | 545.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 531.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 515.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 385$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 54c | 321.35$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 270.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 46c | 244.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 13c | 198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 187.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 175.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 170.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 58c | 170.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 69c | 152.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 149.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 47c | 147.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 140.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 138.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 138.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 131.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 124.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 58c | 120.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 118.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 47c | 108.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 17c | 103.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 48c | 102.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 99.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 97.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 41c | 97.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 97.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 95.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 93.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 92.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 90.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 16c | 83.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 78.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 55c | 73.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 70.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 67.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 67.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 54c | 66.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 62.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 59.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 46c | 58.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 29c | 57.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 56.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 64c | 54.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 50c | 50.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 49.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 48.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 54c | 47.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 47.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 46.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 55c | 43.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 42.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 78c | 42.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 47c | 38.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 37.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 44c | 37.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 40c | 36.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 47c | 35.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 55c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 33.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 33.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 47c | 32.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 80c | 32.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 31.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 46c | 30.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 35c | 29.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 62c | 28.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…4ca1backed Yes | 52c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 63c | 21.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.