Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd032a80eee9058aeb1a7e6390668d43d1d4b6be1db6fc7bd3ccee1fd296d39f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 35c | 1,278$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.78 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 14c | 800.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 236.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 217.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 192.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 180.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 151.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 138.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 134$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 128.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 120.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 69c | 119.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 119.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 39c | 113.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 105.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 41c | 105.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 101.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 91.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 33c | 89.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 80.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 33c | 79.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 68.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 35c | 67.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 66.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 62.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 33c | 60.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 60.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…668abacked No | 63c | 47.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 42.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 41.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…2436backed Yes | 37c | 36.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 67c | 32.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…fd7ebacked Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 58c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 76c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 60c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 66c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 69c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 76c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 80c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.