Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a3c29afb12c31b67094866bcf1762edae06fc67a3b23a6519486ab908ddcb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 49c | 1,143$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.84 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 301.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked No | 6c | 272.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 256.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 69c | 218.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 188.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 36c | 145.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 133.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 75c | 132.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 132.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 40c | 112.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 111.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 34c | 105.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 31c | 104.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 29c | 96.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 44c | 82.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 81.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 75.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 66.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 28c | 64.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 60.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 62c | 57.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 25c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 79c | 56.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 53c | 50.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 56c | 50.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 27c | 49.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 44c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…59e1backed Yes | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 30c | 46.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked No | 22c | 45.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 38c | 44.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 45c | 44.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8d3dbacked Yes | 74c | 40.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…0e07backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 45c | 37.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 36.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 62c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 41c | 29.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 58c | 23.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 23.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 22.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 51c | 19.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 56c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 17.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.