Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd11131352adec61b5ce6184f4e3fa795a89e32f526ef0735d803d70c6ee30ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 648.08$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 19c | 467.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 332.06$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 323.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 294.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 213.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 199.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 159.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 61c | 156.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 134.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 132$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 120.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 96.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 89.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 87.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 75.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 74.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 73.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 68.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 64.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…d51bbacked Yes | 21c | 58.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 53.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 41.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 69c | 40.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 75c | 38.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 65c | 37.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…e6bfbacked No | 62c | 37.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…15c9backed Yes | 41c | 36.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 63c | 35.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 43c | 35.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 47c | 29.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 29.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 75c | 23.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 22.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 58c | 21.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 53c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 18.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 60c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.