Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6893832f365993d18fad711be6d9a706d179d33d0d9dc407754e53511696b7ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 740.06$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 696.4$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.11 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 286.95$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 64c | 204.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 187.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 172.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 158.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 154.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 123.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 49c | 113.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 46c | 109.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 52c | 93.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 39c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 55c | 64.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 64.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 59.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…1b0cbacked Yes | 43c | 56.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 55c | 54.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 53.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…0bbfbacked No | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 43c | 48.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 38c | 47.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 44.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 51c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 48c | 37.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 40c | 37.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 43c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 30.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 55c | 30.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dc…263cbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 26.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 53c | 26.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 47c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 63c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…a575backed Yes | 55c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 70c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 60c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.