Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd179cedeeb1cb022da0df7e4517214b7aac7be4668cdf2ff77af66e030f0939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 75c | 352.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 266.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 221.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 160.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 66c | 158.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 155.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 147.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 142.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 139.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 137.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 130.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 124.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 106.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 91.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 79c | 91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 82.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…90febacked Yes | 16c | 81.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +129%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 77.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 20c | 70.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 69.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 64.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…f248backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 59.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 58.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 55.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 50.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 69c | 48.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 24c | 47.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 28c | 47.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 47.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 28c | 47.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 28c | 45.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 32c | 43.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 42.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 36.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 36c | 35.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 30c | 35.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 33.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 77c | 32.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 78c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 31.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 31.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 73c | 31.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 60c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 29.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 29.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 28.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 28.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 26.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…a5a1backed Yes | 57c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 75c | 18.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 15.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.