Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274d0e553d6d069d7b4d2fd0179d1aa20464e5e44425b938362ea37d4a568d02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 41c | 249.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 199.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 66c | 145.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 27c | 127.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 16c | 124.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…d2dfbacked Yes | 58c | 121.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 120.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 117.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 45c | 112.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 109$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 108.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 100.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 93.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 65c | 92.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 90.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 86.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 84.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 80.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 74.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 64.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 64.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 62.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 56.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 28c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 49.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 55c | 45.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 52c | 45.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 77c | 45.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 42.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 41.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 40.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 57c | 37.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 63c | 34.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 34c | 29.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 42c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…a5a1backed Yes | 54c | 28.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 26.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 26.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 25.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 53c | 25.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 52c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 63c | 17.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.