CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 5star vs Alter Ego (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Asian Qualifier Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd6a472dca81496c55c479869206674793410b30de2e3a91274ff6488937f8a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alter Egoof 5star, Alter Ego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked 5star | 40c | 353.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 5star | 50c | 339.73$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Alter Ego | 61c | 208.29$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked 5star | 47c | 196.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked 5star | 41c | 153.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Alter Ego | 49c | 150.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…e949backed Alter Ego | 56c | 128.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 5star | 49c | 119.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Alter Ego | 55c | 109.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…279fbacked Alter Ego | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 5star | 41c | 94.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 5star | 35c | 86.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…7a95backed Alter Ego | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | -14.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Alter Ego | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Alter Ego | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 457 | 48.1%220 W · 237 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alter Ego | 44c | 51.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked 5star | 49c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Alter Ego | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed 5star | 38c | 43.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Alter Ego | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 883 | 30.7%271 W · 612 L | -63.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Alter Ego | 68c | 35.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked 5star | 47c | 34.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked 5star | 30c | 34.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed 5star | 41c | 31.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Alter Ego | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Alter Ego | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked Alter Ego | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…cbc6backed Alter Ego | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alter Ego | 65c | 29.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 5star | 78c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…e478backed 5star | 60c | 25.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alter Ego | 60c | 25.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed 5star | 50c | 24.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed 5star | 65c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Alter Ego | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.