Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdab088331184e0414b4dfc98b744c6b2ed71f5004c9bb56146405a82a2142e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 3,687$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.36 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…6535backed No | 69c | 3,326$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 31c | 3,073$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.63 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 2,671$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 69c | 2,311$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.53 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 11c | 1,784$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 1,267$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.78 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,056$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…1050backed Yes | 31c | 903.23$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 30c | 816.27$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 691.87$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 31c | 674.19$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 599.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 31c | 514.52$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 69c | 488.06$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 32c | 395.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 6c | 344.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…a266backed No | 70c | 335.71$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Yes | 30c | 279.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 249.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…d37fbacked Yes | 31c | 240.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 13c | 224.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 30c | 158$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 32c | 148.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 141$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…0841backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…3ec6backed Yes | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 12c | 140.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 30c | 112.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…51ebbacked No | 77c | 108.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed No | 77c | 99.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…7aaabacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 68c | 86.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…ecb5backed Yes | 29c | 81.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…6583backed No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…16d6backed No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…843bbacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 31c | 52.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…e738backed Yes | 32c | 51.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd90…fcf1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03d…7e2bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 69c | 43.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.