Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb6479f303e153243df1416b286418674c2b7119a57add6d23bcdfbc4dc5bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 57c | 3,898$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 3,867$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.3 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 738.75$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.61 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 76c | 648.42$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 561.35$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 75c | 342.52$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 59c | 247.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Under | 24c | 216.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 48c | 202$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 51c | 190.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 44c | 174.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…5ff2backed Under | 15c | 127.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Over | 61c | 84.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 24c | 81.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 45c | 72.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Under | 22c | 61.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 49c | 59.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 48c | 59.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 57.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 33c | 44.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 45c | 37.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 61c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.