Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fb7dba82518c2a40ff20e3d7f92527de18993f6291767ce08ada3639b1947e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,318$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 45c | 1,744$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.29 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 42c | 1,732$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 1,199$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.21 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 14c | 693.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 555.25$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 74c | 388.29$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 50c | 387.75$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 367.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 43c | 315.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 33c | 293.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 5c | 252.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 50c | 242.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 30c | 170.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 59c | 125.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 31c | 124.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Under | 15c | 80.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 80.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Under | 16c | 75.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 41c | 74.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 79c | 65.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 32c | 59.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Under | 68c | 58.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 40c | 56.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Under | 51c | 54.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 40c | 47.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 41c | 44.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Under | 45c | 42.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 59c | 41.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 40.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Over | 51c | 37.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 60c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 31.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 43c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.