MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddbb62fc66343e03f1797590a6c95927c5af6d1f7657a6f1e0bb8ee344c2c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Pirates, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Pirates | 0c | 25,463$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Pirates | 6c | 6,665$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Pirates | 35c | 4,095$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.4 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Pirates | 0c | 3,640$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Brewers | 65c | 3,062$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.86 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Pirates | 1c | 2,459$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 62c | 2,264$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Pirates | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Pirates | 55c | 1,816$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Pirates | 14c | 1,744$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…e520backed Brewers | 65c | 1,566$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.1 | 279 | 53.4%149 W · 130 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Brewers | 65c | 1,217$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.82 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Pirates | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Pirates | 9c | 866.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Pirates | 36c | 835.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Brewers | 43c | 815.79$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Pirates | 3c | 688.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Pirates | 30c | 619.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Brewers | 66c | 501.69$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…0cccbacked Pirates | 16c | 473.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Pirates | 14c | 430$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pirates | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Brewers | 64c | 390.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Pirates | 34c | 333$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Brewers | 67c | 328.1$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Brewers | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Pirates | 34c | 300.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Brewers | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Brewers | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pirates | 34c | 294.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Pirates | 35c | 284.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…e79dbacked Pirates | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Pirates | 15c | 226.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Brewers | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pirates | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6159backed Brewers | 66c | 196.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Pirates | 43c | 190$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a58ebacked Brewers | 66c | 167.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…6bddbacked Pirates | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Brewers | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Brewers | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Brewers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pirates | 32c | 147.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…1c9cbacked Brewers | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Brewers | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…6155backed Brewers | 65c | 117.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Pirates | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 141 | 46.8%66 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Pirates | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Pirates | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Brewers | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Brewers | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pirates | 34c | 99.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Brewers | 64c | 98.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…8501backed Pirates | 35c | 94.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Pirates | 35c | 94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…1981backed Pirates | 22c | 92.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Brewers | 66c | 69.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…5825backed Brewers | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Pirates | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Brewers | 66c | 57.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Brewers | 65c | 50.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Brewers | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Pirates | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…6643backed Brewers | 66c | 48.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…3db0backed Brewers | 66c | 45.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pirates | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Pirates | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…0c63backed Brewers | 66c | 31.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…0c36backed Brewers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Brewers | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.