Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddea69e1c39da49e2e5722196eefccebfe6805c25f6f92d00fb9feb2aa236f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Team Spirit, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 6,607$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,106.74 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 2,949$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.11 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit | 31c | 2,536$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.55 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 36c | 1,831$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.31 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 1,818$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 1,647$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.53 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,644$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.96 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 1,388$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.13 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Team Spirit | 68c | 1,298$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.59 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Spirit | 38c | 1,286$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.07 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 1,065$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.47 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…4480backed Team Spirit | 76c | 1,059$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Spirit | 77c | 1,014$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.91 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 1,000$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.2 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Spirit | 6c | 816.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Team Spirit | 40c | 770$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 712.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.42 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…185dbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 696.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Team Spirit | 15c | 661.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 641.62$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.38 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Spirit | 77c | 641.56$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed Team Spirit | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 343.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 310$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Team Spirit | 78c | 300$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Team Spirit | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…b30ebacked Team Spirit | 76c | 291.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Spirit | 79c | 289$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.31 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…1325backed Team Spirit | 20c | 261.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…b40bbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 246.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 228.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Team Spirit | 28c | 222$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 212.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…46dbbacked Team Spirit | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Spirit | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…669abacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit | 35c | 188.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 182.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 150.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Spirit | 76c | 132.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 129.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 123.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 123.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…e109backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 116.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…dc41backed Team Spirit | 50c | 90.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c6…7d8cbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 89.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 88.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…27d0backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 84.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Spirit | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…7ba2backed Team Spirit | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0274…b5dfbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…da7dbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 46.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Team Spirit | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Team Spirit | 41c | 37.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…71eebacked Team Spirit | 47c | 34.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Team Spirit | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…6696backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 28.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.