Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca8cea360d690f2618148b329b56acd659b583b5a6fc7162e31284666296d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Team Spirit | 73c | 7,329$5,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.22 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 4,308$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.68 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 1,627$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.87 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 1,003$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Natus Vincere | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 974.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 957.19$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 756.38$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 640$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 600.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 23c | 414.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Spirit | 75c | 400.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Spirit | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Spirit | 76c | 289.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 8c | 257.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…b30ebacked Team Spirit | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 200.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…245bbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 99.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…56fdbacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 92.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 87.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 80.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 78.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 57.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…da7dbacked Team Spirit | 76c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Spirit | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Team Spirit | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c1…4c97backed Team Spirit | 77c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.