Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe09697419170904b90ff2c1c8b7f52341ee3cc58a190beceb4336d554771469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 2,043$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.67 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 202.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 194$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 171$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 159.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 124.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 123.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 112.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 34c | 112.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 110.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 21c | 101.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 99.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 94.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 92.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 88.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 83.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 63.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 52.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 40.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 34c | 39.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 38c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 34.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 28.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 72c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 74c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 71c | 25.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…0015backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 73c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.