MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe34d24880e3a1f0cc175870e252748e4f85e31c750e6779a7e70d1080ae1bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 901.34$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.52 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 809.53$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 681.25$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 677$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.42 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 214.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 64.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 54.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 50.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 47.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 22.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.