MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54cce8dc06e0979462a5e699e703ad417d503fcfccaaaa9609e4d4373a988df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 244,555$114,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114,940.85 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 212,830$112,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,030.1 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 53c | 98,429$52,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,261.86 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 47c | 20,900$9,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,823 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 14,182$6,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,665.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 12,550$5,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,839.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 5,225$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.75 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 2,932$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 2,879$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.07 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Under | 48c | 2,817$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 48c | 1,090$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.27 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…0db6backed Under | 47c | 1,021$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 653.02$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 447.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.91 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Over | 52c | 424.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 47c | 360$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 35c | 269.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 208$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 47c | 203.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 32c | 202.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 199.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 57c | 195.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 195.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 47c | 177$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 43c | 170.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…bb62backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…4d66backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 85.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 65c | 74.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 29c | 58.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 53c | 54.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 47.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…c014backed Under | 47c | 47.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 52c | 46.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 36.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 27.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb08…86d8backed Over | 54c | 21.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.