MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb479869e6ad45e6c87c5c6a849baba6d7c24f83c64ef44cf49cb63a3c61e368f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 40c | 30,000$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,999.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 60c | 26,201$15,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,766.93 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 60c | 5,189$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,113.6 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 38c | 3,305$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.33 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Yes | 42c | 2,026$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.03 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked No | 63c | 1,598$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 39c | 1,301$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 60c | 949$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.4 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed No | 62c | 854.84$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 40c | 662$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed No | 60c | 520$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 60c | 491.8$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.08 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 60c | 426$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed No | 60c | 363.33$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 38c | 281$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed No | 60c | 279$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 38c | 264.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 60c | 215$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…0111backed Yes | 39c | 204.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 62c | 201.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 62c | 166.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 57c | 89.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed No | 60c | 88.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 39c | 82.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 60c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 38c | 55.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 37c | 43.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 62c | 31.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.