MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6701420ac68ad73b507c9efc75ba819ced3c4fffc5505be4b5a0d615a77967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 4,351$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 61c | 3,283$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.63 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 60c | 1,021$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.53 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 61c | 984.9$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.79 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 61c | 728.28$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.25 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 339$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 320.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 222.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 66c | 180.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 57c | 165.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 61c | 144.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 134.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 39c | 124$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Under | 14c | 95.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 61.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 55.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Over | 40c | 37.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 50c | 34.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 60c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.