NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe5b6a956738e581d6aab73ad788d1548683fe26aefbb418470b8caa578a8138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 37,960$19,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,664.24 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 49c | 33,496$16,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,413 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Under | 50c | 32,222$16,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,111 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 16,241$8,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,120.3 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 49c | 13,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 5,239$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.4 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Under | 50c | 1,251$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Over | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 49c | 680.39$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 411.76$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.76 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…2564backed Under | 51c | 411.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 320.93$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 59c | 128.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 51c | 108.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 67.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 55.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…5493backed Under | 51c | 43.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Over | 49c | 40.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Under | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5this page
- Buccaneers vs. TexansBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.