NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c322048fe39568f7b1e7c207c1d5606582475fe33aecd4a8ade94b5960b358d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Texans, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Buccaneers | 59c | 10,255$6,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,209.6 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texans | 41c | 8,000$3,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Buccaneers | 58c | 3,377$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.3 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Texans | 41c | 1,900$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Texans | 42c | 1,185$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.89 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Texans | 42c | 1,100$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Texans | 42c | 1,011$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Texans | 42c | 799.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Buccaneers | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Texans | 43c | 234.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Texans | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Texans | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…2468backed Buccaneers | 58c | 86.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Texans | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texans | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…3816backed Buccaneers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)this page
- Buccaneers vs. TexansBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.