NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a1f50de387d70c72cc3f4fd9d41446470cf5961a2928dc08496dad2af57ba9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Texans, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Texans | 52c | 72,293$37,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,592.58 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Buccaneers | 48c | 44,710$21,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,249.2 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Texans | 52c | 23,724$12,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,315.49 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Buccaneers | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 19,957$9,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,377.64 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Buccaneers | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Texans | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Buccaneers | 47c | 7,701$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.62 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Buccaneers | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Texans | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Buccaneers | 47c | 2,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Texans | 53c | 2,132$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Buccaneers | 66c | 2,111$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.74 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Buccaneers | 47c | 1,698$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Texans | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Texans | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Texans | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Buccaneers | 48c | 699.08$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.52 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Buccaneers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Buccaneers | 48c | 289$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Texans | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Buccaneers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Texans | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Texans | 35c | 150.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Texans | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Texans | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Texans | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Texans | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Buccaneers | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Texans | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Buccaneers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Buccaneers | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…21f8backed Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Texans | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…6497backed Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Buccaneers | 49c | 40.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…0451backed Buccaneers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Texans | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Buccaneers | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Buccaneers | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Texans | 52c | 29.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Texans | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaee…0869backed Buccaneers | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)this page
- Buccaneers vs. TexansBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Texans: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Texans (-3.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.