NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7c04563dcca3e7ae6a189f21c67c74f6f165bd495cb3e019b4141ec2b9c6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Lightning, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 43c | 4,248$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.61 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Blues | 58c | 3,105$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.9 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Blues | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Lightning | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blues | 57c | 1,659$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.36 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 42c | 1,630$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.89 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blues | 58c | 1,085$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 37c | 1,052$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.69 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 72c | 551.5$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Lightning | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Blues | 58c | 444$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Lightning | 41c | 302.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blues | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Blues | 58c | 293.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Blues | 59c | 279.84$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Blues | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Blues | 57c | 266$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Blues | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 27c | 192$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Blues | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Blues | 67c | 179$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 34c | 148.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Blues | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 42c | 100.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Lightning | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Lightning | 43c | 96.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Lightning | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Lightning | 41c | 91.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…1b62backed Lightning | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Lightning | 41c | 87.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Blues | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Blues | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Lightning | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 43c | 53.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Blues | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Lightning | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…9220backed Lightning | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blues | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Blues | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Blues | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…597ebacked Lightning | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Lightning | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Blues | 59c | 24.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Blues | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. BluesBlues won
- Lightning vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.