Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe92de8b4d12b3b51a956c34ec2edfc8892ef95dadda8f3154366f9c81e19ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 28c | 330.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 42c | 274.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…8e0ebacked Yes | 77c | 247.01$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 244.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 6c | 239.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…2de5backed No | 13c | 149.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 146.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 133.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 133.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 112.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 10c | 107.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 23c | 93.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed Yes | 57c | 75.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 30c | 66.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 68c | 58.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 70c | 52.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 41.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 39.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 66c | 37.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…30b6backed No | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 51c | 33.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 56c | 23.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 77c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 69c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 15.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.