F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbefdbc61dbf7431c012b126522ad734c6027cc055b2d388d3caa0d4f5fb2b4cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 60c | 1,296$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Yes | 10c | 1,093$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…cb44backed Yes | 53c | 916.58$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d68…f0bebacked Yes | 8c | 661.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 57c | 531.26$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +9.1wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 59c | 489.81$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.78 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…5f9ebacked Yes | 41c | 488.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 431.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…9b98backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 5c | 392.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…578fbacked Yes | 41c | 304.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 7c | 304.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…01e2backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…175bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 9c | 229.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…b356backed Yes | 6c | 214.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…47e5backed Yes | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc4…24aebacked Yes | 50c | 138.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…bb98backed Yes | 9c | 133.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…c5d8backed Yes | 10c | 103.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…5e0dbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 68c | 55.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed No | 65c | 46.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…9396backed Yes | 42c | 36.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 34c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…252ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…e427backed Yes | 43c | 26.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.