F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x845378a54948d20f4068bee3ad7d10306e71edcca3e69acfadc6b4699ea05798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 38c | 13,000$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.98 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 10,761$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 63c | 9,289$5,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…8e99backed Yes | 61c | 3,275$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 42c | 1,658$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.94 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 8c | 913.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4117…7336backed No | 37c | 850.98$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 75c | 725.19$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 58c | 632.6$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Yes | 63c | 539.68$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 8c | 467.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 22c | 432.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Yes | 59c | 393.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7f82backed Yes | 63c | 347.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…50d7backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 43c | 305.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…1c38backed Yes | 76c | 291.53$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 39c | 280.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7698…0faebacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 18c | 243.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…1538backed No | 31c | 227.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 44c | 204.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 58c | 172.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…8c7fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Yes | 63c | 158.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed No | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Yes | 60c | 139.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +9.1wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 40c | 126.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f8…a613backed Yes | 63c | 124.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 11c | 105.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…d6a5backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…eed5backed Yes | 62c | 100.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 44cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…c5d8backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…11dabacked Yes | 56c | 89.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…bbebbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0794…0843backed Yes | 64c | 83.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Yes | 61c | 81.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 56c | 78.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 74.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 56c | 74.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…0136backed No | 25c | 72.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8862backed Yes | 78c | 67.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…94c5backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…da31backed Yes | 62c | 48.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…e72dbacked No | 41c | 46.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 38c | 42.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 59c | 41.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…26a5backed Yes | 58c | 41.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 64c | 41.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…3130backed Yes | 64c | 39.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 36.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…951cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1e…b0fabacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…bb98backed Yes | 62c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…ec2fbacked Yes | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 39c | 25.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…004abacked Yes | 57c | 24.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.