MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf37c6be05764f9f3cb37237f67824353f389e5a490834ac803fec80336c59f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Over | 55c | 4,147$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 45c | 2,829$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.06 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 1,474$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.74 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 1,370$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 949.3$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.11 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 686$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.54 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 585$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 36c | 573.11$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 466.36$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.5 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 79c | 393.44$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 53c | 323.28$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.34 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 283.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 243.71$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Under | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 188.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 55c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 45c | 95.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 50c | 48.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 41.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 47c | 39.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 47c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Over | 54c | 32.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 39c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 46c | 27.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 50c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.