MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381acdacd107580a8345c444467c015e626777a878301d208117a67c5abb15e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 46c | 50,000$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,000 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 54c | 34,920$18,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,063.03 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 7,206$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.94 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 54c | 4,117$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.82 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 3,336$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.56 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 734.78$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.63 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 709.1$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.09 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 676$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.96 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 556.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 435$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.37 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 399$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 55c | 353.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 54c | 201$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Under | 55c | 124.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 69c | 108.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Under | 55c | 95.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 54c | 84.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 356 | 43.5%155 W · 201 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 34c | 76.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 75c | 70.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Over | 46c | 70.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 55.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 55c | 41.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 54c | 40.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 32.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 46c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8a83backed Under | 58c | 25.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.