Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf39aa4afb5805f75751e724383280fedb3510f3b21af212f22388c78f6f691c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6534…4700backed Yes | 26c | 2,346$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 75c | 1,690$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.34 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 24c | 892.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.17 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 888.8$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.7 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 845.38$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.37 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 63c | 644.68$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 51c | 519.9$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.39 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 446.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed No | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350c…8955backed Yes | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 24c | 212$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 53c | 189.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 36c | 124.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 102.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 97.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 82.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 77.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 75.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 73.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 59c | 69.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 32c | 68.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 54c | 60.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 55.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 28c | 44.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 57c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Yes | 40c | 26.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.