Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd86df7371ea05d6519f55e5e76c33c2bc0ef8c8f04c1ff0f618e670008c0ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 56c | 5,849$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed No | 43c | 5,022$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 55c | 4,998$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.09 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 1,683$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 40c | 1,521$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.32 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,458$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.23 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 54c | 1,426$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.93 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 1,343$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.46 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 10c | 1,101$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.34 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 60c | 957.59$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 54c | 948.56$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.04 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 40c | 742.6$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.56 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 67c | 716.92$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 39c | 592.18$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.42 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed No | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 55c | 419.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.86 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 387$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 332.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 56c | 330.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.47 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 60c | 303.48$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 44c | 280.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.27 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 60c | 262$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 260.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed No | 19c | 256.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 39c | 256$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 249$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 44c | 226.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 78c | 203.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 27c | 183.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 55c | 182.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 52c | 160.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 32c | 157$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 45c | 153.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 39c | 149$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 59c | 148.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 145.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 47c | 143$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 54c | 107.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 32c | 99.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 55c | 96.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 39c | 92.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 28c | 87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed No | 51c | 76.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…593dbacked Yes | 60c | 72.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 61c | 71.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…7ddebacked Yes | 44c | 69.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…2c29backed No | 18c | 68.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 42c | 59.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 42c | 55.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…1d46backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…1df7backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…b669backed Yes | 60c | 49.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 59c | 48.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 55c | 47.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 44.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…935bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Yes | 37c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 59c | 27.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 61c | 26.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 60c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.