NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf43af37a40f41ac6317571bf1c81d508c143b3a8939998cce5b68d6f6a594cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Golden Knights, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 30c | 2,172$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.6 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Ducks | 70c | 988$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 70c | 857.49$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.17 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 66c | 432.93$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Ducks | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 28c | 394.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 27c | 385.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Ducks | 73c | 383.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Ducks | 72c | 333.33$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 31c | 281$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 71c | 211.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Golden Knights | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights | 33c | 121.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…25e3backed Golden Knights | 32c | 121.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Golden Knights | 29c | 110.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 29c | 100.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Ducks | 72c | 97.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Ducks | 67c | 89.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Golden Knights | 38c | 89.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 70c | 85.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Golden Knights | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 74c | 69.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Golden Knights | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Golden Knights | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Golden Knights | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Golden Knights | 26c | 48.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Ducks | 68c | 42.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Ducks | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ducks | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Golden Knights | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Ducks | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Ducks | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 72c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ducks | 67c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Ducks | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DucksDucks won
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.