Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5702cc5e7786fa6cd8cdb8ef960cc4f95c969c2be03a32a96c0a6e8497e048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 5,696$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.6 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 21c | 2,109$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.89 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 23c | 800.25$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 25c | 604.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 4c | 284.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 23c | 224.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 19c | 188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 25c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…f486backed Over | 25c | 54.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…3aa4backed Over | 28c | 51.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…6cdabacked Over | 28c | 42.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 78c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…cdfbbacked Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…3bd5backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2130backed Under | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7542…7d09backed Under | 73c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…f054backed Under | 75c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030b…4035backed Under | 76c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…e5f0backed Under | 79c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…7f1abacked Under | 73c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…2be6backed Under | 76c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…f7eabacked Under | 73c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…da1cbacked Under | 76c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…722fbacked Under | 76c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)SC Braga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.