MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5babd88695e94000be4dd6f9d922d88090bf4b4c06beeaf47c0764b2e56d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 5c | 3,499$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 3,249$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 2,718$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 2,338$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 1,097$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.17 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 1c | 1,034$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.17 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 30c | 653.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.15 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 379.56$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 295.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.81 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 256.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 135.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 30c | 95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 31c | 92.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 88.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 45c | 87.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 51c | 86.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 61c | 81.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 61c | 74.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 64.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 40c | 63.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 39c | 51.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 30c | 48.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 49c | 46.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 32c | 45.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 43c | 41.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 40.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 31.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 28.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 50c | 26.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…d6dabacked Over | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 50c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.