MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17bc6d1a1a040036dcfbacb8d7bbfc73fa344f7acb7f598f1b3c9e1848be9423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 7,028$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.02 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 4,205$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.56 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Under | 52c | 4,045$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.51 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 2,808$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 2,805$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 2,241$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,645$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 1,309$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 49c | 997.77$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.28 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 958.86$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 808.04$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 627.08$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.83 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 480.89$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 448.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 53c | 372.3$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 307$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 52c | 301.07$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 265.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 64c | 214.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Under | 51c | 173.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 9c | 153.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 123.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 55c | 111.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 47c | 107.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 52c | 84.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 27c | 67.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f2…000ebacked Under | 50c | 66.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 56.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 54.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 52.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 45.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 46c | 31.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.