MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a57a55a5962df51784fcb91dc15f2439a69f4e3216516d3fa49bfd118e2ae11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 2,409$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 2,349$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,985$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,037$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.14 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 6c | 1,035$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 773.22$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 591.87$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 17c | 589$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 565.72$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 520.77$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 478$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 319.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 312.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 14c | 278.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 199.17$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 12c | 177.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 127.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 91.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 65.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 62.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Minnesota Twins | 24c | 58.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 57.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 56.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 48.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 47.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 40.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 29.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.