Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf644151feaae74439ca43e5c8b5a8276675697f66c8355d357ac3636d6e7147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 848.54$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.21 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 22c | 522.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.81 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 498.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 75c | 429.51$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.28 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 398.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.46 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 386.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 363.78$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 254.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 252.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 241.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 66c | 214.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 8c | 184.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 175.08$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 15c | 171.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 171.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 28c | 143.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 138.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 38c | 128.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 34c | 127.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 122.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 120.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 120.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 112.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 22c | 110.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 107$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 102$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 99.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 89.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 33c | 82.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 82.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 81.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 16c | 80.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 75.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed No | 43c | 65.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 50.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 45.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 74c | 40.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 39.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 39.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 37.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 60c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 73c | 30.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 26.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 26.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 76c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…5088backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.