Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb1ff259e993d90c4a65f71891f1ecba1d70a7136defc54336cf0566317da8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 322.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 281.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 226.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 36c | 199.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 15c | 182.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 165.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 38c | 160.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 140.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 64c | 140.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 124.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 121.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 116.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 107.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 98.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 95.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…6bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 92.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 82.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 77.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 67c | 74.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 30c | 74.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 73.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 68.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 66.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 65c | 64.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 62c | 62.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 60.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 60c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 58.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 52.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 52.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 42c | 51.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 26c | 51.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 50.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 47.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 46.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 46.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 73c | 41.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 40.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 35.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 32.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 31.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 30.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 38c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 28.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.