Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6c718a5e6a682b04482270d6ae0dceeaef1256b46749e23bc5309ba664b088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 365.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 320.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 300.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 70c | 279.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 277.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 251.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 230.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 225.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 149.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 74c | 135.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 125.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 122.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 108.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 103.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 30c | 94.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 33c | 91.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 29c | 80.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 76.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 75.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 74.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 79c | 70.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 32c | 70.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 69.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 32c | 67.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 62.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 58.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 74c | 57.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 56.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 69c | 54.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 29c | 53.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 52.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 47.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 46.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 46.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 45.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 74c | 40.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 70c | 40.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 38.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 37.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 37.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 35.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 68c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 31.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 73c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.