TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,791 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals35c728.91$252 inLost-$252.344,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals34c587.6$198 inLost-$197.8912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c568.98$376 inWon+$193.452,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c456.92$297 inWon+$159.921,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates66c318.82$210 inWon+$108.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals34c300$102 inLost-$1028,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates66c234.5$155 inWon+$79.731,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals34c191.73$65 inLost-$65.434,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c154.3$102 inWon+$52.4672648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Pittsburgh Pirates67c148.18$100 inWon+$48.1857548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c138.94$90 inWon+$48.632,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed St. Louis Cardinals35c123.51$43 inLost-$43.2321350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed St. Louis Cardinals34c50$17 inLost-$171,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c50$33 inWon+$171,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates72c40$29 inWon+$11.25,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c34.01$22 inWon+$11.562,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c32.37$21 inWon+$11.333,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c19.29$13 inWon+$6.755,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.