MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49177e5f419894d53ce7513b02689137d5481d067e92d35f8f853b5221172980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 56c | 3,100$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.99 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,999$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.61 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 1,117$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.66 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 66c | 1,068$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.47 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 5c | 330.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 312.14$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 66c | 256.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 44c | 202.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 62c | 177$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 38c | 177$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 157.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 51c | 135.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 26c | 114.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 77.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 67.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 46c | 59.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 22c | 53.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 41c | 46.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 44.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 73c | 44.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 59c | 42.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…9b79backed Under | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…360ebacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 59c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.