MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1119771f59c637b0f163b565e2b3c50682cd693e1454b18e1df76ef9f510205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 1,999$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.75 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 1,675$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 1,551$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 1,021$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 280$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 213.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 124.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 99.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 53.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 52.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…6f99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 23.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.