MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0289ab889be361394de8b25b0b0dfb8433ee2f0cb06e79e0fb7f755d2a4a56fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 6,660$4,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 1,479$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 33c | 1,110$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.23 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,072$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,037$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 1,023$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 999.09$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…2079backed Under | 58c | 782.33$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 33c | 371.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 33c | 371.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 80c | 286.47$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…776dbacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 11c | 224.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 166.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 17c | 162$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 33c | 156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 33c | 138.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 96.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 43c | 94.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Under | 78c | 91.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 90.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 33c | 69.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 79c | 33.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…1f18backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 72c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…9725backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.