MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1471334e28d19f09182a166ca5b9d175d59ec858982c3161ee4f80b9ab0072f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 48c | 17,219$8,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,942.8 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,627$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2037…473dbacked Over | 51c | 2,521$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 49c | 2,444$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.6 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 49c | 1,607$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.49 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 1,470$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Over | 51c | 1,390$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 1,243$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.68 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 51c | 1,152$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.66 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 1,137$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 49c | 757.69$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.28 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 600$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 49c | 596.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.88 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 506.64$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 50c | 493.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 52c | 465.64$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.13 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 65c | 459.28$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 50c | 412$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 320.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 309.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 289.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 280.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 49c | 257.58$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 244.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…776dbacked Over | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 51c | 193.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 51c | 193.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 184.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…ccfbbacked Over | 28c | 175.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 27c | 150.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…5ceabacked Under | 49c | 124.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 30c | 121.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 105.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Under | 49c | 103.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 49c | 93.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 46c | 91.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 78.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 49c | 77.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…09d0backed Under | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Under | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Under | 49c | 52.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 28c | 38.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 31.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 49c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 67c | 26.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 50c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60c3…4846backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 49c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.