TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,382 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Over67c714.85$479 inWon+$235.928,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under38c523.86$199 inLost-$199.072,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under33c499.99$165 inLost-$1651,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Over67c499.99$335 inWon+$1652454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under40c432.23$173 inLost-$173.0899624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c262.84$153 inWon+$110.146,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Under12c200$24 inLost-$247038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over59c186.79$111 inWon+$76.2712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Under47c72.88$34 inLost-$34.181,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over64c60$38 inWon+$21.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under31c59.54$18 inLost-$18.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over66c56.36$37 inWon+$19.161,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under43c55.25$24 inLost-$23.6526553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Under34c42.84$14 inLost-$14.3843043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over60c36.69$22 inWon+$14.681,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under34c35$12 inLost-$11.94,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over57c33.54$19 inWon+$14.362,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…e6d8backed Over52c28.85$15 inWon+$13.859150.5%46 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over74c24.69$18 inWon+$6.452,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over61c20$12 inWon+$7.82,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under58c20$12 inLost-$11.65,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over55c20$11 inWon+$97655.3%42 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$1079255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over71c17.07$12 inWon+$4.971,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over70c14.64$10 inWon+$4.422,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.