NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf9e4adc0040719a7432cd94ef9ea7696435d38b63f45987a9ec108d366dd838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 6,059$3,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 50c | 5,498$2,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…5d12backed Suns | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 50c | 1,120$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 48c | 653.85$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Kings | 52c | 653.85$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Suns | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Kings | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Kings | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Suns | 50c | 345$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Kings | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Kings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 46c | 147.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Suns | 49c | 119.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Suns | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Suns | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 50c | 63.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 50c | 63.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Suns | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Suns | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Kings | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 64.5%107 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -11.2wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked Suns | 48c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…2eaebacked Suns | 48c | 36.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Kings | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 60c | 30.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 49c | 27.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Suns | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Suns | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-7.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. SunsSuns won
- Kings vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Kings vs. Suns: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-12.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.