NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7545ef6ac35e7c0774f5d30a3fe4463e0ded2206b713192ef34b04cfd9db7d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 52c | 8,414$4,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,356.4 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 44c | 7,802$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.78 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns | 48c | 7,373$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.92 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Suns | 59c | 4,239$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.03 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Suns | 50c | 3,445$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.66 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 54c | 3,203$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Suns | 57c | 1,168$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.42 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Suns | 53c | 1,126$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.42 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Suns | 52c | 1,124$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Suns | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Kings | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 50c | 806$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 45c | 793.62$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Suns | 46c | 759.24$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0c4abacked Suns | 52c | 720$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Kings | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Suns | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Suns | 50c | 313.49$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Kings | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Kings | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Kings | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Kings | 44c | 194.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 49c | 190.27$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…b202backed Suns | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Suns | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Kings | 44c | 122.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Suns | 57c | 116.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 51c | 114.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Suns | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Kings | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…7921backed Kings | 45c | 91.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Kings | 43c | 90.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 55c | 90.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Kings | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Suns | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 56c | 85.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Suns | 47c | 85.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Suns | 58c | 82.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Suns | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Suns | 53c | 77.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Suns | 50c | 71.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Kings | 45c | 57.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Kings | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Suns | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Kings | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Suns | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Kings | 51c | 35.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Suns | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aff…821abacked Suns | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Suns | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…78c0backed Suns | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Suns | 59c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Suns | 47c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Suns | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Kings | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 53c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-7.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. SunsSuns won
- Kings vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Kings vs. Suns: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Suns (-12.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.