Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd0e6d016f5a89b451e5afb2b28b6f03647feaf4baf08d37bb62096dd4cd824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 423.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 270.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 60c | 158.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 145.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 71c | 124.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 33c | 102.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 35c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 38c | 73.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 72.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 30c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 63.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 49.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 39c | 46.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 62c | 36.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 58c | 36.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 36.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 36.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 64c | 28.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 47c | 28.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 61c | 25.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 52c | 19.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 66c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.