Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2785b3ea6542af4a587c5320d9b83e9ce51469e0987d4b7130a3d3ecf96a00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 4c | 547.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 514.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 434.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 334.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 324.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 249.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 188.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 24c | 177.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 169.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 160.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 138.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 38c | 132.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 130.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 41c | 127.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 119.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 22c | 90.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 76.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 69.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 76c | 65.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 65c | 64.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 68c | 60.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 58.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 32c | 56.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 32c | 55.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 68c | 50.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 45.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 44.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 26c | 43.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 69c | 40.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 79c | 40.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 36.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 77c | 35.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 69c | 32.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 38c | 32.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 72c | 28.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 24.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 63c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 20.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 20.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked Yes | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.