Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff25630ab431df3a437250d1ade8223d231c9d236c4082e2047da60d0cf5f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed MODUS | 12c | 1,674$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MODUS | 25c | 1,199$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked MODUS | 16c | 1,171$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 72c | 737.95$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win | 77c | 721.5$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked MODUS | 30c | 703.84$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed 1win | 77c | 661.5$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.19 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked 1win | 75c | 656.67$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked MODUS | 28c | 614.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed MODUS | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed 1win | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 75c | 493.21$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked MODUS | 24c | 430.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked 1win | 75c | 391.33$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed MODUS | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MODUS | 32c | 313.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed MODUS | 23c | 311.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 71c | 307.52$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed MODUS | 11c | 281.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked MODUS | 18c | 265.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed 1win | 77c | 256.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed MODUS | 40c | 243.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked 1win | 55c | 243.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…c382backed 1win | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed 1win | 57c | 199.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked 1win | 64c | 196.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed 1win | 74c | 192.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed MODUS | 28c | 191.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed 1win | 70c | 164$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked 1win | 74c | 138.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed MODUS | 40c | 125.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 21c | 120.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked MODUS | 30c | 109.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked MODUS | 29c | 99.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 76c | 97.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked 1win | 74c | 91.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…20a2backed MODUS | 21c | 88.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed MODUS | 39c | 83.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed 1win | 62c | 80.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked 1win | 74c | 78.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed 1win | 75c | 78.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed MODUS | 35c | 77.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MODUS | 30c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…efdcbacked 1win | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…249abacked MODUS | 24c | 63.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked MODUS | 23c | 63.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 42c | 58.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1win | 78c | 56.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed 1win | 75c | 54.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked MODUS | 27c | 52.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed 1win | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 59 | 78%46 W · 13 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed MODUS | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 79c | 44.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked 1win | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed 1win | 73c | 39.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 72c | 39.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed 1win | 75c | 36.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…4f23backed MODUS | 38c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…108dbacked 1win | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed MODUS | 35c | 29.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed 1win | 67c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed 1win | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked 1win | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked MODUS | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed 1win | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed 1win | 75c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked 1win | 75c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked 1win | 78c | 22.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked 1win | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed 1win | 72c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…e584backed 1win | 76c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.